Ed. Note: The following is a (rather technical) guest post about Value Add from its creator John Pudner. I’ve always found his rating system interesting and wanted to share these improvements with others. You can see the full ratings here.
This is a guest post from John Pudner on mid-season Value Add. You can check out his work on the site. But here’s a dive into some of the teams. (Please note: Low-major is a distinction that Pudner uses to designate the divide in his player rankings. I’m not a huge fan of the moniker, but the context does provide some interesting insight as well.) Continue reading
Now that Lamont “Momo” Jones has agreed to come to Iona and possibly even play during the 2011-12 season, the Gaels are being talked about as not only the MAAC’s (and NYC’s) top team, but a sleeper to make a deep NCAA Tournament run.
It really seems like people are getting ahead of themselves and I’d like to dig back into the value add well to explain why.
As a sort of follow up to Cracked Sidewalks’ post about the Top 16 teams using value add I wanted to look at conference strength. Using the formula for returning players I calculated the average team strength for each conference. I also calculated the standard deviation as sort of a way of showing team strength. The chart is here, my thoughts are after the break.
Is it possible that after finishing right around .500 last season, and 6-8 in league play, Columbia might be a team that’s ready to make the leap in the Ivy League? Well, the one metric that seems to support that theory is offense “value add.” (For more background on the stat see this post and Cracked Sidewalks.)
A break down the Ivy League’s returnees through the lens of the statistic suggests that Harvard is going to run away with league crown. The Crimson combined for a very solid overall number of 15.1% value added when you add up all the individual contributions. I haven’t run the numbers for every school, but I bet that’s high even amongst BCS teams. That’s just another reason to watch out for Harvard next season. But it was the second rated team in the Ivy League, Columbia, that really stood out when I looked at the numbers.