10,000 Sims: CAA Tournament

Will William & Mary make its first ever NCAA tournament? It’s a fair question to ask in the wide open CAA tournament in Baltimore.

The fact that these games are played in Baltimore, a neutral site, makes the CAA tournament even more wide open than many other mid-major battle royales. In fact, every single CAA team won at least 70 of the 10,000 simulations I ran.

Here are the results:

Teams Finalists Titles
Northeastern 48% 26%
William & Mary 41% 24%
Hofstra 36% 21%
UNCW 31% 13%
James Madison 15% 7%
Delaware 11% 3%
Drexel 7% 2%
Elon 4% 1%
Towson 4% 1%
College of Charleston 3% 1%

I can reveal that I took Hofstra in The Jerome contest, but honestly, it was mostly because I want the New York City team to make the NCAA tournament. The Pride, while ranked right up there with Northeastern and W&M according to KenPom, really struggled against the top of the league. Hofstra finished 1-7 against the top four teams in the CAA, with the lone win coming at UNCW on Jan. 3.

Why then does the Pride have a chance in Baltimore? Because a lot of those losses were close! Still, a nine-point loss at James Madison exactly a week to the day before their 4/5 matchup doesn’t bode well.

Personally, I feel like third seeded Northeastern is the best bet in this tournament. The Huskies have to survive a suddenly frisky Delaware in the quarterfinals, but UNCW — even if they finished second in the CAA — is the weakest link in the top four. In a league where most games are a tossup a slightly easier trip to the finals is all it takes.

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