Will William & Mary make its first ever NCAA tournament? It’s a fair question to ask in the wide open CAA tournament in Baltimore.
The fact that these games are played in Baltimore, a neutral site, makes the CAA tournament even more wide open than many other mid-major battle royales. In fact, every single CAA team won at least 70 of the 10,000 simulations I ran.
Here are the results:
|William & Mary||41%||24%|
|College of Charleston||3%||1%|
I can reveal that I took Hofstra in The Jerome contest, but honestly, it was mostly because I want the New York City team to make the NCAA tournament. The Pride, while ranked right up there with Northeastern and W&M according to KenPom, really struggled against the top of the league. Hofstra finished 1-7 against the top four teams in the CAA, with the lone win coming at UNCW on Jan. 3.
Why then does the Pride have a chance in Baltimore? Because a lot of those losses were close! Still, a nine-point loss at James Madison exactly a week to the day before their 4/5 matchup doesn’t bode well.
Personally, I feel like third seeded Northeastern is the best bet in this tournament. The Huskies have to survive a suddenly frisky Delaware in the quarterfinals, but UNCW — even if they finished second in the CAA — is the weakest link in the top four. In a league where most games are a tossup a slightly easier trip to the finals is all it takes.