10,000 Sims NEC 2014-15 Edition

The top of Ken Pomeroy’s NEC projections make a ton of sense. Robert Morris and St. Francis Brooklyn are considered the class of the NEC and there they are at the top of the standings, though a little lower than the league would probably like at 177th and 198th respectively.

It’s right behind those two though where things get interesting. Wagner is rated much higher than many people expect. The Seahawks are fourth in Pomeroy’s preseason NEC rankings, but it’s really splitting hairs between Bryant, Wagner, Central Connecticut and Mount St. Mary’s in these rankings. Saint Francis U., a popular sleeper, isn’t being given much respect. The Red Flash are ranked 256th to start the season and projected to go 9-9. They finished in the league’s top four in 37% of simulations and missed the NEC tournament altogether about 10% of the time.

Well, I ran a full season Monte Carlo simulation of NEC play using Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, which is easier now considering the league is playing a full round robin, and the results support a Robert Morris or St. Francis Brooklyn title, as you can see below.

Name Wins Ties Outright Pct. Outright Pct. Tied Projected Wins Over/Under
Robert Morris 3719 1460 2259 22.59% 14.60% 11 Over
St. Francis NY 3327 1338 1989 19.89% 13.38% 11 Over
Bryant 1614 815 799 7.99% 8.15% 10 Push
Wagner 1453 755 698 6.98% 7.55% 10 Under
CCSU 1285 695 590 5.90% 6.95% 10 Under
Mount St. Mary’s 1258 703 555 5.55% 7.03% 10 Under
Saint Francis PA 654 381 273 2.73% 3.81% 9 Over
Sacred Heart 170 116 54 0.54% 1.16% 7 Push
LIU Brooklyn 93 62 31 0.31% 0.62% 7 Under
Fairleigh Dickinson 48 38 10 0.10% 0.38% 6 Push

 

The NEC is one of those rare leagues where every team truly does have a chance coming into the season. Sure the Knights only did it 10 times in 10,000 sims, but one in 1,000 is better than never! Personally, I was surprised by Wagner’s appearance in the top four. In fact, the Seahawks finished in the top four teams in the NEC in almost exactly half of the 10,000 sims. That’s a home playoff game in the NEC tournament! It would truly be an impressive accomplishment if Bashir Mason was able to steer his team to a home quarterfinal a season after losing so much depth off a roster that fell in the semifinals for the third straight season during the 2014 NEC tournament.

I’ve added my personal opinion about if certain win totals are too high or low. Maybe this is New York City bias, but I could see LIU Brooklyn outperforming expectations. Right now the Blackbirds have about a 50-50 chance of qualifying for the NEC tournament. The team right in front of them, Sacred Heart, has a 57% chance. I’d like to see those numbers flipped.

What team do you think KenPom is over or under rating? Were you surprised by anything in the NEC ratings? Let us know in the comments!

14 thoughts on “10,000 Sims NEC 2014-15 Edition

  1. FDU40

    Attended the FDU Intrasquad Scrimmage Saturday, and I can tell you that FDU will be at least a 4th to 6th place team in the NEC. with the potential to be even better. Xavier Harris looks like he will be the most improved player in the NEC and Marqes Townes will be one of the top three Freshmen in the NEC..Matt MacDonald and Mustafa Jones gives FDU a strong outside shooting game. The point guard combination of Nix, Jiggetts, and Anderson is very good. Stokes and Mann looks like they can hold their own at the Center position in the NEC. It appears that Coach Herenda optimism on this year squad is well founded.

    1. SFC Terrier

      FDU Fan, how can you put a placement on FDU when you’ve only seen 1 team? If you’re optimistically looking for talent then you will find something about everyone that you like. Not saying they will finish outside of your 4-6 range but to say you think they are better than at least 4-5 teams w/o even seeing them is blind optimism, or delusion

      1. Richard

        True. The conference will probably be a big logjam this year. The talent level is rising at every school. I can envision the kind of a year when almost every team will have near a .500 record. FDU could finish 7th or even last, but might just be as talented as the number one team. These next 2 years are really going to be very even and interesting to say the least. Barring any crucial injuries, I can foresee each place in the conference being contended for very tightly. RMU always seems to snag a very talented freshman group, but year after year most of them are not very good shooters. That leads me to believe that the RMU freshmen have such gaudy HS stats because they took a huge number of shots. Every year though- RMU shooting is bigtime inconsistent. So yeah FDU appears talented to finish high based on pure talent, however there are intangibles that will be exposed in due time.

  2. MSM98

    Agreed that FDU will be improved. Unfortunately, intrasquad games are generally not good indicators of how the teams will fare during regular season (against other programs). I remember back in the early 90s when The Mount would often lose 20 games a season – thinking that they looked great in the intrasquads. That said, I think you have reason to be optimistic about the Knights. Love Coach Herenda, as well! Best of luck this season!

    1. FDU40

      Best of luck to the Mount. I agree that intrasquad games are not always the best indicators,because their is no game pressure to win a real game. However I was surprised at the level of talent I saw.

    2. Richard

      I appreciate your ‘common sense’ comment. So many factors are gonna play into the level of success for the Mount and all teams. A big bonus occurs when the players on the teams continue to get along as best friends on a personal level. On Milan’s good teams that was definitely the case. Markus, Kelz, Goodeeee, Sam, Shawn, etc. They were very close and partied quite often together 🙂 To be honest I really wish Mr. Joey Butler hadn’t got caught and remained on the team. I mean most of them do what Butler did, there was no need to throw him under. If he had been able to stay, I believe Mount really would have been a powerhouse. Butler went on to St. Vincent PA and averaged near 25 a game.

  3. FDU 40

    To SFC Terrier- After being so BAD for so long. To see the Big upgrade in talent and coaching it is easy to become delusional. However I did use the word POTENTIAL for FDU to be in the top tier in the NEC this year. If you think I’m delusional Coach Herenda booked Kentucky for next year. Good Luck to the Terrier this year. They should be a real force in the NEC this year

    1. Dan From Staten Island

      Good luck to all of the NEC teams this coming season. It looks to be another extremely interesting and entertaining season. As much as the press constantly harps on the major conferences, I’ll take a good NEC rivalry any day of the week because the league is so balanced. I like the Terriers’ chances this year a lot. The rotation that Glenn Braica will employ will likely go 10-11 players deep. Actually, the program has not been that bad if you remember the Ron Ganulin-led teams (2 regular season NEC crowns, but no NCAA appearances), and the last couple of campaigns with Coach Braica has certainly moved the program up the standings quite a bit. The SFC talent required to take the whole enchilada certainly appears to be there this year. It will be exciting to follow.

    2. Richard

      Y’all have not been bad for really that long though. What was it like 2006 when y’all almost beat big bad Illinois in the tournament? Then FDU was still good with Ubilla and Baptiste. When you really look back on things, most schools seem to go through a similar cycle of success to cellar. Granted a team like RMU is an exception when they continue to have influence from a coach such as Mike Rice, who is somewhat ‘Calipari-esque’ in certain ways. I have a good feeling that Toole still gets certain assistance from Rice. This may offend- I hope Rice never coaches again. I have a great feeling that aside from any abuse, he conducted things in a ‘shady’ manner during his short tenure. Anyways….. FDU does scare me though this year. I believe Townes and perhaps Jiggetts are gonna really light it up. I just hope that FDU is able to keep all the players from transferring- same for all the teams. Transferring is getting way too common and too easy. I surely hope that changes.

  4. Richard

    To be honest, I do not believe that Mount St. Mary’s will be at the top this year. However, I have a great feeling that they will lead the way next year and the year after. The Mount is in the works to get their hands on some extremely talented VCU type players over the next few years, in addition to this year’s gem of a class.

  5. Richard

    It would be nice to see some of the other traditional NEC powers or original NEC teams be back at the top (minus RMU lol). Yes LIU was just up there, but it be nice to see FDU, SFPA, SFNY back up there again too. I really do not care for some of the newer teams post-Mount such as CCSU and the like. I see CCSU a better fit for America East than NEC. Similar for Bryant and Sacred Heart- I see them to be Patriot League type teams. We lost a very valuable asset when Quinnipiac left though. Hopefully soon the NEC can bring in a few new schools also and send the aforementioned to those respective conferences. Please no NJIT though 🙂

    1. Dan From Staten Island

      Think that the ideal NEC would contain smaller private schools with no more than 5,000 students. Large state institutions like CCSU have much bigger athletic budgets, thanks to that state’s taxpayers. However, you need at least 8 schools to create a viable league at this level, and there’s just not a lot of colleges looking to jump conferences at this point. They appear to be quite satisfied that they can compete with other league opponents. NJIT is the only program that seems to be desperate to join a conference.

      1. Dan From Staten Island

        Just to put this discussion in a bit more perspective, here are the full-time undergraduate enrollment numbers for the NEC members, courtesy of US News & World Report’s Best Colleges 2015:

        Bryant — 3,200
        CCSU — 7,624
        SHU — 3,773
        FDU — 4,843
        LIU — ??
        Wagner — 1,761
        SF Brooklyn — 2,456
        SFU PA — 1,547
        RMU — 3,935
        MSM — 1,650

        For reference, NJIT — 5,709

  6. FDU40

    Rich- the key reason why the NEC might change in the future is that the NEC Schools that have Football programs may join or combine with other leagues to make more money. Just look at the Big East and what football did to that great Basketball league.

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