10,000 Sims MAAC 2014-15 Edition

Ken Pomeroy released his preseason rankings on Sunday night, which of course meant that Twitter spent all of Monday dissecting them. When it comes to the smaller conferences there are definitely some odd results.

That’s of course why we have 10,000 sims! I took the new adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team in the MAAC and plugged them into a Monte Carlo simulation for each season. Out pops the champion for each season.

If you’ve seen Pomeroy’s rankings it won’t be surprising that Iona is the prohibitive favorite in the MAAC. The Gaels are projected to be the 71st best team in the country and their simulation odds show just how far Tim Cluess’s team is ahead of the pack in Pomeroy’s rankings.

Team Wins Ties Outright Pct. Outright Pct. Tied Projected Wins Over/Under
Iona 7018 1462 5556 55.56% 14.62% 15 Push
Manhattan 3073 1176 1897 18.97% 11.76% 13 Over
Siena 803 430 373 3.73% 4.30% 11 Over
Quinnipiac 351 208 143 1.43% 2.08% 10 Under
Canisius 295 168 127 1.27% 1.68% 10 Under
Fairfield 117 78 39 0.39% 0.78% 9 Push
Marist 118 84 34 0.34% 0.84% 9 Under
Rider 86 57 29 0.29% 0.57% 9 Push
Monmouth 20 10 10 0.10% 0.10% 8 Push
Niagara 18 14 4 0.04% 0.14% 7 Under
Saint Peter’s 137 137 0 0.00% 1.37% 9 Over

 

The last column in the table is my personal feelings about how the MAAC will play out. KenPom rankings appear to overrate a few teams — most notably Canisius — and potentially undersell Saint Peter’s and Siena. Of course maybe the numbers are picking up on something I’m not.

Some other quick bullet points on Iona’s dominance:

  • Iona finished either first or second 86% of the time.
  • Iona went undefeated (in a 20-game schedule!) 11 times. Manhattan went undefeated once.
  • The best guess for Iona’s win total according to KenPom is 15, but healthy distribution (more than 18% on 14 and 16 wins as well)

Is there a team that you think KenPom is seriously underrating? Anything that surprised you?

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