A Quick Comparison of Pomeroy and Hanner Predictions

Two very smart people have released preseason college basketball ratings that span the entire breadth of Division I. Even though Ken Pomeroy and Dan Hanner use different methods to make their predictions the results were quite similar last season. Still, there are some outliers. Here are a few of the more interesting one.

The Top 10 teams that Hanner’s rankings are higher on than Pomeroy’s:

  1. Tennessee Tech (219 vs. 302)
  2. Wyoming (89 vs. 161)
  3. Kent St. (143 vs. 211)
  4. Pennsylvania (179 vs. 240)
  5. Milwaukee (205 vs. 265)
  6. Arkansas Little Rock (168 vs. 227)
  7. UC Irvine (135 vs. 193)
  8. Fairfield (125 vs. 180)
  9. Louisiana Tech (47 vs. 100)
  10. Navy (270 vs. 322)

There are some really interesting cases in this Top 10. Hanner and I discussed Milwaukee and Penn at some length in our Q&A. My guess is that the Fairfield disparity is due to Hanner’s system having the knowledge that Sydney Johnson is about to add former Pitt Panther and Top 100 recruit Malcolm Gilbert to the Stags’ front court. That’s a huge upgrade that Pomeroy’s system isn’t designed to account for.

Another team where personnel might have a big impact is Wagner. The Seahawks aren’t in the Top 10 most different, but Hanner has Bashir Mason’s squad at 124th in the nation compared to Pomeroy’s 171st. A lot of that difference most likely comes from the fact that Wagner adds Valparaiso transfer Jay Harris and the potential for some better than expected development from Dwaun Anderson.

What about on the other side of the coin? Which teams do Pomeroy’s projections like more? Here is the Top 10:

  1. Charlotte (128 vs. 204)
  2. Louisiana-Lafayette (151 vs. 225)
  3. Central Connecticut (179 vs. 252)
  4. Northern Colorado (184 vs. 251)
  5. Mount St. Mary’s (195 vs. 261)
  6. SC Upstate (129 vs. 194)
  7. Mississippi St. (117 vs. 178)
  8. Marist (196 vs. 257)
  9. Jacksonville St. (239 vs. 297)
  10. NC A&T (243 vs. 298)

The two NEC teams are intriguing because there seems to be a lot of variance in how humans perceive both of these teams as well, with a lot of it depending on how you value depth and some personnel changes.

Hanner’s ranking of Mount St. Mary’s seems low still – the Q&A has more on that too. CCSU has a lot of talented pieces and the lack of depth and some questions in the front court are not as big problems in Pomeroy’s system.

Marist is another team that’s driving preseason predictions batty and the human element is a big part of it. The Red Foxes have a new coach – something Hanner accounts for – and a huge hole at point guard. Sure a ton of possession minutes are coming back, but can they be put together efficiently? That’s the big question that we won’t really have a real answer for until the season starts.

Of course, it’s also interesting to see where the two systems agree. There are nine teams which have the exact same ranking in either system. They are:

  • Duke – 6
  • Ohio State – 7
  • Michigan – 12
  • Gonzaga – 18
  • Tennessee – 34
  • Mississippi – 65
  • North Texas – 232
  • Siena – 277
  • Grambling – 351 (last)

The overall standard deviation of the difference between the rankings is 26 places. There are 23 teams whose projection difference is more than two standard deviations apart. Having more projections is almost always more valuable than not. So it’s great that people have these two opinions to check out. Of course fans always want to paint the rosiest picture. If you want to know what ratings system to back just look your team up in the handy table below. They’re in alphabetical order.

Team Who?
Abilene Christian Pomeroy
Air Force Hanner
Akron Hanner
Alabama Pomeroy
Alabama A&M Pomeroy
Alabama St. Hanner
Albany Hanner
Alcorn St. Hanner
American Hanner
Appalachian St. Pomeroy
Arizona Hanner
Arizona St. Pomeroy
Ark Little Rock Hanner
Ark Pine Bluff Pomeroy
Arkansas Hanner
Arkansas St. Hanner
Army Hanner
Auburn Hanner
Austin Peay Hanner
Ball St. Pomeroy
Baylor Pomeroy
Belmont Pomeroy
Bethune Cookman Pomeroy
Binghamton Hanner
Boise St. Hanner
Boston College Pomeroy
Boston University Pomeroy
Bowling Green Hanner
Bradley Pomeroy
Brown Pomeroy
Bryant Pomeroy
Bucknell Hanner
Buffalo Pomeroy
Butler Pomeroy
BYU Hanner
C. Connecticut Pomeroy
Cal Poly Hanner
Cal St. Bakersfield Hanner
Cal St. Fullerton Pomeroy
Cal St. Northridge Pomeroy
California Pomeroy
Campbell Pomeroy
Canisius Pomeroy
Central Arkansas Pomeroy
Central Michigan Hanner
Ch. Southern Hanner
Charleston Hanner
Charlotte Pomeroy
Chattanooga Pomeroy
Chicago St. Hanner
Cincinnati Pomeroy
Clemson Hanner
Cleveland St. Pomeroy
Coastal Carolina Hanner
Colgate Hanner
Colorado Hanner
Colorado St. Hanner
Columbia Hanner
Connecticut Pomeroy
Coppin St. Hanner
Cornell Pomeroy
Creighton Pomeroy
Dartmouth Hanner
Davidson Pomeroy
Dayton Hanner
Delaware Pomeroy
Delaware St. Pomeroy
Denver Pomeroy
DePaul Pomeroy
Detroit Pomeroy
Drake Pomeroy
Drexel Hanner
Duke Pick
Duquesne Pomeroy
E. Washington Hanner
East Carolina Pomeroy
East Tennessee St. Pomeroy
Eastern Illinois Pomeroy
Eastern Kentucky Hanner
Eastern Michigan Hanner
Elon Hanner
Evansville Pomeroy
Fairfield Hanner
Fairleigh Dickinson Pomeroy
FIU Hanner
Florida Pomeroy
Florida A&M Hanner
Florida Atlantic Hanner
Florida Gulf Coast Hanner
Florida St. Hanner
Fordham Pomeroy
Fresno St. Hanner
Furman Pomeroy
G. Washington Hanner
Gardner Webb Hanner
George Mason Pomeroy
Georgetown Pomeroy
Georgia Hanner
Georgia Southern Pomeroy
Georgia St. Pomeroy
Georgia Tech Pomeroy
Gonzaga Pick
Grambling Pick
Grand Canyon Hanner
Green Bay Pomeroy
Hampton Pomeroy
Hartford Pomeroy
Harvard Hanner
Hawaii Hanner
High Point Hanner
Hofstra Hanner
Holy Cross Pomeroy
Houston Hanner
Houston Baptist Hanner
Howard Pomeroy
Idaho Hanner
Idaho St. Pomeroy
Illinois Pomeroy
Illinois Chicago Pomeroy
Illinois St. Pomeroy
Incarnate Word Pomeroy
Indiana Pomeroy
Indiana St. Hanner
Iona Pomeroy
Iowa Pomeroy
Iowa St. Pomeroy
IPFW Pomeroy
IUPUI Pomeroy
Jackson St. Pomeroy
Jacksonville Hanner
Jacksonville St. Pomeroy
James Madison Hanner
Kansas Hanner
Kansas St. Pomeroy
Kennesaw St. Hanner
Kent St. Hanner
Kentucky Hanner
La Salle Hanner
Lafayette Pomeroy
Lamar Hanner
Lehigh Pomeroy
Liberty Pomeroy
Lipscomb Pomeroy
Long Island Pomeroy
Long Beach St. Pomeroy
Longwood Pomeroy
Louisiana Lafayette Pomeroy
Louisiana Monroe Pomeroy
Louisiana Tech Hanner
Louisville Pomeroy
Loyola Chicago Hanner
Loyola Marymount Hanner
Loyola MD Pomeroy
LSU Hanner
Maine Pomeroy
Manhattan Hanner
Marist Pomeroy
Marquette Hanner
Marshall Pomeroy
Maryland Pomeroy
Massachusetts Pomeroy
McNeese St. Pomeroy
MD Eastern Shore Hanner
Memphis Hanner
Mercer Hanner
Miami FL Pomeroy
Miami OH Hanner
Michigan Pick
Michigan St. Pomeroy
Middle Tennessee Hanner
Milwaukee Hanner
Minnesota Pomeroy
Miss. Valley St. Hanner
Mississippi Pick
Mississippi St. Pomeroy
Missouri Pomeroy
Missouri St. Hanner
Monmouth Hanner
Montana Hanner
Montana St. Hanner
Morehead St. Hanner
Morgan St. Hanner
Mount St. Mary’s Pomeroy
Murray St. Hanner
N. Colorado Pomeroy
Navy Hanner
NC A&T Pomeroy
NC Asheville Hanner
NC Central Hanner
NC Greensboro Pomeroy
NC State Pomeroy
NC Wilmington Hanner
Nebraska Pomeroy
Nebraska Omaha Pomeroy
Nevada Hanner
New Hampshire Hanner
New Mexico Pomeroy
New Mexico St. Hanner
New Orleans Hanner
Niagara Pomeroy
Nicholls St. Hanner
NJIT Hanner
Norfolk St. Pomeroy
North Carolina Pomeroy
North Dakota Hanner
North Dakota St. Hanner
North Florida Pomeroy
North Texas Pick
Northeastern Pomeroy
Northern Arizona Pomeroy
Northern Illinois Hanner
Northern Iowa Hanner
Northern Kentucky Hanner
Northwestern Pomeroy
Northwestern St. Pomeroy
Notre Dame Hanner
Oakland Pomeroy
Ohio Hanner
Ohio St. Pick
Oklahoma Pomeroy
Oklahoma St. Pomeroy
Old Dominion Pomeroy
Oral Roberts Hanner
Oregon Hanner
Oregon St. Pomeroy
Pacific Hanner
Penn St. Pomeroy
Pennsylvania Hanner
Pepperdine Hanner
Pittsburgh Pomeroy
Portland Hanner
Portland St. Pomeroy
Prairie View A&M Hanner
Presbyterian Pomeroy
Princeton Pomeroy
Providence Pomeroy
Purdue Pomeroy
Quinnipiac Pomeroy
Radford Pomeroy
Rhode Island Pomeroy
Rice Hanner
Richmond Hanner
Rider Pomeroy
Robert Morris Hanner
Rutgers Hanner
Sacramento St. Pomeroy
Sacred Heart Pomeroy
Saint Joseph’s Pomeroy
Sam Houston St. Hanner
Samford Pomeroy
San Diego Pomeroy
San Diego St. Hanner
San Francisco Hanner
San Jose St. Pomeroy
Santa Clara Pomeroy
Savannah St. Pomeroy
SC Upstate Pomeroy
SE Louisiana Hanner
SE Missouri St. Pomeroy
Seattle Hanner
Seton Hall Pomeroy
Siena Pick
SIU Edwardsville Hanner
SMU Pomeroy
South Alabama Pomeroy
South Carolina Hanner
South Carolina St. Hanner
South Dakota Pomeroy
South Dakota St. Pomeroy
South Florida Hanner
Southern Pomeroy
Southern Illinois Hanner
Southern Miss Hanner
Southern Utah Hanner
St. Bonaventure Pomeroy
St. Francis NY Hanner
St. Francis PA Pomeroy
St. John’s Hanner
St. Louis Hanner
St. Mary’s Hanner
St. Peter’s Hanner
Stanford Pomeroy
Stephen F. Austin Hanner
Stetson Pomeroy
Stony Brook Pomeroy
Syracuse Pomeroy
TCU Hanner
Temple Pomeroy
Tennessee Pick
Tennessee Martin Hanner
Tennessee St. Pomeroy
Tennessee Tech Hanner
Texas Hanner
Texas A&M Pomeroy
Texas A&M CC Hanner
Texas Arlington Pomeroy
Texas Pan Amer. Hanner
Texas Southern Hanner
Texas St. Hanner
Texas Tech Hanner
The Citadel Hanner
Toledo Pomeroy
Towson Hanner
Troy Hanner
Tulane Hanner
Tulsa Hanner
UAB Pomeroy
UC Davis Hanner
UC Irvine Hanner
UC Riverside Hanner
UC Santa Barbara Hanner
UCF Hanner
UCLA Hanner
UMass Lowell Pomeroy
UMBC Pomeroy
UMKC Hanner
UNLV Hanner
USC Pomeroy
Utah Pomeroy
Utah St. Hanner
Utah Valley Hanner
UTEP Pomeroy
UTSA Hanner
Valparaiso Pomeroy
Vanderbilt Pomeroy
VCU Pomeroy
Vermont Pomeroy
Villanova Pomeroy
Virginia Hanner
Virginia Tech Pomeroy
VMI Pomeroy
Wagner Hanner
Wake Forest Pomeroy
Washington Hanner
Washington St. Hanner
Weber St. Pomeroy
West Virginia Hanner
Western Carolina Pomeroy
Western Illinois Hanner
Western Kentucky Pomeroy
Western Michigan Hanner
Wichita St. Hanner
William & Mary Pomeroy
Winthrop Pomeroy
Wisconsin Hanner
Wofford Hanner
Wright St. Hanner
Wyoming Hanner
Xavier Pomeroy
Yale Hanner
Youngstown St. Hanner
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