2011 Team Similarities: Hofstra

Hofstra appears due for a slide next season. Now, the graduation of Charles Jenkins makes that a pretty lame prediction, but the Pride outplayed their peripherals last season.

Ken Pomeroy’s “luck” metric seems to think so. Hofstra was the sixth luckiest team in basketball last season according to his metric which compares pythagorean record to actual record. Clocking in at +0.125 means Hofstra won about four more games than it should’ve.

Well, take those four wins away and you get a 17-16 team, which is much closer to the average put up by teams that were comparable to Hofstra in the past. This is because no matter how many points you score, allowing 105.3 points per 100 possessions makes it impossible to prevent the runs that end up losing ballgames against good teams.

Take a look at some of Hofstra’s comparisons that had the same problems:

  1. Wisconsin Green Bay – 2007 — 18-15
  2. Stanford – 2010 — 14-18
  3. Rider – 2007 — 16-15
  4. Utah Valley St. – 2006 — 16-18
  5. Montana St. –  2010 — 15-14
In the Pride’s top 12 comparisons as many teams lost 20 games (1 – Rice 2009) as won 20 games (1 – Houston 2008). Most everyone else fell a few games around .500. 
Hofstra is going to take a big blow next season with the graduation of Jenkins, but unless Mo Cassara gets his team to commit to defense in the future the Pride are going to have some much bigger problems on their hands.